project cars WMD ROI Calculator

[Ryzza5]

This is just for some fun, and my sums could be wrong, but I've made up this Excel profit calculator for you to play with.

 

Just enter in how many million copies of the game you think will be sold, then enter the QTY for each tool pack you've purchased, then enter your exchange rate with the Euro and see what happens.

 

Again if this moves you spend more money I won't be held responsible for the outcomes :)

 

 

Feel free to share your estimations if you want

 

Download here

 

I sure hope it sells as good as NFS Shift did :lol:

[Ozzmcom]

I don't have excel :(

can someone upload a screen?

[Ryzza5]

Try this:

 

Microsoft SkyDrive - Access files anywhere. Create docs with free Office Web Apps.

 

Then click Edit in Browser and sign in

[Ozzmcom]

thanks ryzza, well according to my predictions this game will most probably sell about 2 to 3 million copies. Which makes it not that of a great investment unit but hey it's a great game :P

[Ryzza5]

Any 5 digit return for my $2.5k is a good return for me. With 3m sales I'm looking at just under $23k, but I may yet buy another 1 or two manager packs to make that 34k or 43k. Then if they sell 5m that could be.. I don't know because someone keeps editing the file on me :p

[Guest MrLolololXD]

Oh.... So when I change stuff it changes for you too :mhmm:

 

*changes more stuff*

[Ryzza5]

Please don't, other WMD members have access to it as well

[Guest MrLolololXD]

Lol ok

[Ozzmcom]

Any 5 digit return for my $2.5k is a good return for me. With 3m sales I'm looking at just under $23k, but I may yet buy another 1 or two manager packs to make that 34k or 43k. Then if they sell 5m that could be.. I don't know because someone keeps editing the file on me :p

 

well with the lack of advertising/promotion and given that it's a full on simulation which is not popular amongst gaming industry these days 5 mil is a dream number. It could hardly top 2.5 mil. Besides there are many things that aren't in that calculation table. Doing an international share distribution over internet? you guess the taxes on that, paypal will take a share as well.

I mean it's risky as well , I'm not even 100% sure this game will have all the features the devs are talking about heck I'm not even sure if they're going to release it. Talking about licenses as well. There's no way they can give the 70% of the revenue just like that. That number's gonna drop with every license they purchase.

You'll notice 30-70 diversion is not really clear.

There are publishers to think about, the company's own taxes, distribution channels, marketing and so on

It takes many millions to release a game these days, lets say the game sells 2 mil for 45 euros , that means devs will get around 10 mil out of their 30% share.

You tell me how they're going to finance all that with just 10 mil.

Seems a little optimistic to me

[Ryzza5]

I'd be with you if this was Eden, but these guys have been around long enough to know how this stuff works, plus they have a lot of "in-drawer" tech which they can efficiently plug in. Subscribe to the threads that show progress and they're moving very quickly.

 

What do big companies with big marketing budgets do these days anyway that would make such a massive difference besides TV advertising? With all the hype the community is capable of building, excellent user-made trailers that don't take up dev time, and the many online blogs that report on all the news there's a decent amount of word of mouth. Just like I'm reporting on this forum about pCARS there are many doing similar on their communities as well. YouTube will help us out a fair bit. And then there are those who will just see the game on the shop shelf.

The graphics are already top-notch for tracks that aren't brand new and the co-op features are somewhat revolutionary.

 

Will see what happens. Distribution costs come out of revenue before profit is split up. Ian's been great so far and has earned plenty of trust, especially from the senior managers. A year's worth of development to go still so plenty of time for things to be built and polished.

[Camel]

I'm just going to wait till they turn around and say they're keeping all he money. Just sounds like something companies are good at doing. Although these aren't Atari. :hmmm:

 

Might try the ~£100 thing.

[Ryzza5]

This was interesting:

 

A little something about our break even point: Namco/Bandai published some Q2 2012 sales figures:

 

Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (PS3, Xbox 360): 840,000 units in Japan + Europe

Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Generations (PS3, Xbox 360): 550,000 units in Japan, USA + Europe (1.01M altogether)

Taiko Drum Master (3DS): 270,000 units in Japan

SD Gundam G Generation Over World (PSP): 260,000 units in Japan

 

And that's only for Q2, not the whole year!

 

I've never even heard of 3 of those games, and not seen any of them in shops. pCARS only needs a tiny combined total of ~270,000 sales on PC, Xbox 360, PS3, and Wii U (and possibly next gen consoles, but they're not allowed to say if they are or aren't due to NDA) for each of us to break even. As long as the economy doesn't die then things are looking good.

[MephistoRacing]

If things go decently for me over the next couple weeks or so, I'll be upgrading to senior for sure, after seeing this.

 

Any word yet on when funding stops?

[Guest MrLolololXD]

The way the donations have been flooding in lately, a couple of weeks... I need to upgrade fast too...

 

They're at 3,520,190 euros as of writing this post, they only need to get to 3.7 million iirc before the funding stops.

[MephistoRacing]

WHUT. Seriously?

 

Quick! Someone loan me 24990 Euros D:

[rollingtheboy]

thanks for this tool Ryzza, but are you really sure that they are going to offer so much to team members if the game sell 5 million? If so, ill buy a senior pack right now :)

The 70% part for investor is real or not?

[Ryzza5]

Yep it's all legit.

 

SMS takes 30% of profit straight away as per the agreement, and then because they've funded part of the game themselves (1.495m out of 3.75m) they get an extra part of the 70%. This has no impact on members like us since we were always going to only contribute a relatively small amount, and it makes no difference who funds the rest of it.

 

The tool just shows what is technically possible using best-guess figures and is not an actual profit predictor though. If I end up with a profit of $1000, $10,000, or $100,000 I'm not going to complain either way :)

 

 

Everyone now realises their chances are running out so the funds are coming in super quickly - will probably be finished by the time December rolls in, if not a month later (because of holiday spending). WMD Forum

[TIMELESS]

If you end up with 100k, I imagine seeing "TDUCK - Sponsered by Ryzza". :p

[Ryzza5]

You mean "Owned by" :nnnn:

 

 

:jk:

[TIMELESS]

You're not kidding :p

 

I hope that 10 Euros was worth it in the end!! :lol:

[Ryzza5]

Might get enough profit to buy another game :)

[TIMELESS]

Here's hoping haha.

 

If I make my money back, I'll be happy. xD

[Ryzza5]

Assuming you were planning on buying the full game you haven't lost anything, the 10 euros you've already spent is a 10 euro discount on the final game. Same with the 25-euro toolpack. If you spend 45 now, you've already purchased the game (get it free when it comes out on your choice of console), AND you get some profit.

 

Juniors won't be getting multiplayer it seems (since they only have monthly builds) so I'd expect many of them will want to upgrade if they have the money.

[Ryzza5]

Received 34,000 so far today; 72,800 so far this month

 

Around 220,000 to go and it's all done :)

[Destroyer-GT]

I was already in doubt to throw in another 50 euros, I might as well do it since mr. taxman is being nice to me this year :P